TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd88d…2750

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST2025%5 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+325.4%+$103.46
SMU Mustangs vs. California Golden Bearsbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$184.35
Maryland Terrapins vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Maryland Terrapins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$17.87
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19.88
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Utah Utes: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19.83
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 156.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$19.83
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Missouri Tigersbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$122.65
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiersbacked Northwestern Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+441.5%+$113.17
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Creighton Bluejays vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Creighton Bluejays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+560.8%+$91.75
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgersbacked Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+38.2%+$36.2
California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orangebacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
USC Trojans vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$35.33
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+156.4%+$23.46
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked Florida State Seminoles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiersbacked Oregon Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked Xavier Musketeers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$86
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Hornets vs. Spursbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Mavericks vs. Celticsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Mavericks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Raptors vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$165.66
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Bucks vs. Thunderbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+374.9%+$116.23
Heat vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$22.33
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+69.5%+$7.09
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Bulls vs. Netsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.3%+$296.5
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.