TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

USC Trojans vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ohio State Buckeyesof USC Trojans, Ohio State Buckeyes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$140,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,189 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Ohio State Buckeyes77c85,678$65,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,070.6124351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC Trojans23c22,500$5,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,22590645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed USC Trojans23c18,888$4,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,344.2410045%45 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed USC Trojans24c10,000$2,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,405.6830139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked USC Trojans24c9,372$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed USC Trojans23c7,001$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.252,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed USC Trojans23c6,532$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.742,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ohio State Buckeyes75c3,745$2,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.512,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed USC Trojans10c3,305$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.992,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ohio State Buckeyes78c2,713$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.115,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed USC Trojans13c2,335$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Ohio State Buckeyes76c2,010$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.484147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked USC Trojans25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9825130.7%77 W · 174 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ohio State Buckeyes72c1,981$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.43,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5781…bbfbbacked USC Trojans24c1,889$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.31850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed USC Trojans35c1,800$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63012230.3%37 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked USC Trojans28c1,714$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.071,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Ohio State Buckeyes73c1,672$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.62,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Ohio State Buckeyes75c1,579$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.6474649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8c…93cdbacked USC Trojans26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39011347.8%54 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed USC Trojans24c1,487$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.112,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked USC Trojans25c1,380$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3457727.3%21 W · 56 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked USC Trojans19c1,364$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.691,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed USC Trojans37c1,278$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.6624444.7%109 W · 135 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ohio State Buckeyes77c1,274$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.021,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed USC Trojans22c1,218$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.12,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed USC Trojans23c1,108$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.51,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed USC Trojans22c1,091$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.853,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3735…3d9dbacked USC Trojans25c1,062$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.422927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed USC Trojans26c1,012$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8225239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed USC Trojans4c861.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6869142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed USC Trojans24c842.09$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.166642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked USC Trojans24c819$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9761446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed USC Trojans21c709.78$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.725,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked USC Trojans25c674$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.771,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked USC Trojans8c572.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7619332.1%62 W · 131 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed USC Trojans12c515.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6642934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked USC Trojans5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524121.2%51 W · 190 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+299%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4090…3e81backed USC Trojans4c499.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Ohio State Buckeyes74c443.93$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4468254.3%370 W · 312 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed USC Trojans10c428$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.48130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed USC Trojans36c420.14$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021830.7%67 W · 151 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked USC Trojans24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040252.7%212 W · 190 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed USC Trojans27c406$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.621,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed USC Trojans25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed USC Trojans11c380$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.13132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Ohio State Buckeyes73c372.58$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.616056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc5…7708backed USC Trojans28c362.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011028.2%31 W · 79 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked USC Trojans17c336$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.564,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed USC Trojans6c312.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.757247.2%34 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked USC Trojans23c304.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ohio State Buckeyes74c302.7$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.740755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed USC Trojans25c301.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.523948.1%115 W · 124 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed USC Trojans23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed USC Trojans24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723330.3%10 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-38.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd88d…2750backed USC Trojans14c247.66$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.332025%5 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+1.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed USC Trojans29c247.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.693,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed USC Trojans31c233.96$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7319641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed USC Trojans23c220$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.618241.2%75 W · 107 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6900…9a4bbacked Ohio State Buckeyes74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b2b…e567backed Ohio State Buckeyes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa341…0aeabacked Ohio State Buckeyes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x995a…9368backed Ohio State Buckeyes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked USC Trojans25c199.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.992,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked USC Trojans28c192.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3577142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Ohio State Buckeyes80c192.18$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8515557.4%89 W · 66 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed USC Trojans9c180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.121,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Ohio State Buckeyes68c157.4$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.861,29645.1%584 W · 712 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Ohio State Buckeyes78c151.65$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.251,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abc…509cbacked Ohio State Buckeyes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed USC Trojans25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59444.7%42 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Ohio State Buckeyes77c103.88$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.896352.4%33 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed USC Trojans26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265052%26 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8236…6479backed USC Trojans26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce0…ff19backed USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa325…bc64backed USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick50cpaid+56.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c84…57f8backed USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed USC Trojans25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed USC Trojans28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821449.5%106 W · 108 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac6…5995backed USC Trojans26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+85.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb80d…0f4ebacked USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x981a…ef4fbacked USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…4d4fbacked USC Trojans27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Ohio State Buckeyes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed USC Trojans33c95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed USC Trojans27c85.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ohio State Buckeyes71c84.21$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.731,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked USC Trojans25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202544%11 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Ohio State Buckeyes75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked USC Trojans40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3215240.1%61 W · 91 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed USC Trojans26c77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0225230.6%77 W · 175 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3a…752fbacked Ohio State Buckeyes77c72.49$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.831764.7%11 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ohio State Buckeyes75c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.941,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ad…8b71backed USC Trojans29c63.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188940.4%36 W · 53 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x372d…a119backed Ohio State Buckeyes61c62.12$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.924654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed USC Trojans24c62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.887749.4%38 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad0…cdc2backed USC Trojans36c58.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked USC Trojans21c54.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2487047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked USC Trojans34c53.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.145953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed USC Trojans32c49.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7812537.6%47 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.