UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34eb44b52616ceb3cd97319f252169ed13a4493e01e3958c9cc4ab88983291c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iwo Baraniewskiof Austen Lane, Iwo Baraniewski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,474 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed Austen Lane | 14c | 37,879$5,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,303.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Austen Lane | 14c | 29,243$4,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,094 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Austen Lane | 15c | 26,600$3,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,990 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…eadcbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 19,713$2,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.66 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…6d8dbacked Austen Lane | 16c | 9,000$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed Austen Lane | 14c | 8,186$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Austen Lane | 14c | 8,062$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.63 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 8,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Austen Lane | 14c | 7,428$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 6,893$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Austen Lane | 14c | 4,140$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Austen Lane | 13c | 4,101$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.46 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Austen Lane | 15c | 3,552$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.36 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 2,217$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.98 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Austen Lane | 13c | 2,118$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Austen Lane | 13c | 1,777$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.01 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Austen Lane | 12c | 1,676$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Austen Lane | 15c | 1,667$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed Austen Lane | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 1cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Austen Lane | 15c | 1,361$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Austen Lane | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Austen Lane | 16c | 1,204$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Austen Lane | 13c | 1,124$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Austen Lane | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Austen Lane | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Austen Lane | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Austen Lane | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Austen Lane | 15c | 1,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Austen Lane | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Austen Lane | 16c | 999.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360b…982fbacked Austen Lane | 16c | 857$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8accbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 855$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Austen Lane | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…5cf7backed Austen Lane | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed Austen Lane | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Iwo Baraniewski | 80c | 434.82$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Austen Lane | 13c | 400.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Austen Lane | 17c | 391$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…4ce6backed Austen Lane | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Austen Lane | 17c | 312.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Austen Lane | 19c | 306.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked Austen Lane | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…3c23backed Austen Lane | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Austen Lane | 17c | 224.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…78dcbacked Austen Lane | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Austen Lane | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Austen Lane | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1a…bf0abacked Austen Lane | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…22c4backed Austen Lane | 16c | 174.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Austen Lane | 18c | 168.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Austen Lane | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8a…d547backed Austen Lane | 17c | 150.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Austen Lane | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Austen Lane | 18c | 149.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Austen Lane | 14c | 142.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Austen Lane | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Austen Lane | 16c | 139.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…3c98backed Austen Lane | 12c | 133.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Austen Lane | 14c | 113.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +11.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Austen Lane | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…7c99backed Austen Lane | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Austen Lane | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…bda1backed Austen Lane | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…3b3ebacked Austen Lane | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504a…5c63backed Austen Lane | 14c | 98.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Austen Lane | 15c | 97.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Austen Lane | 15c | 88.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Austen Lane | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…6bdbbacked Austen Lane | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Austen Lane | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d0…a2a2backed Austen Lane | 14c | 74.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…d63bbacked Austen Lane | 36c | 56.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…3a37backed Iwo Baraniewski | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…cdb2backed Iwo Baraniewski | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…7b53backed Iwo Baraniewski | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…332abacked Iwo Baraniewski | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.