Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. PARIVISION
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7043b006e0c2d5ea59db4e4a955ec46c149329f52c12075384f2c3212a01bf2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof Team Spirit, PARIVISION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Spirit | 61c | 2,942$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.79 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked PARIVISION | 51c | 2,426$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Team Spirit | 56c | 1,581$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 1,532$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.58 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed PARIVISION | 63c | 1,498$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.97 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked PARIVISION | 40c | 1,492$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.3 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Team Spirit | 24c | 1,333$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Spirit | 47c | 1,289$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.15 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Team Spirit | 42c | 1,200$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked PARIVISION | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked PARIVISION | 38c | 900$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Team Spirit | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed PARIVISION | 69c | 640$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Team Spirit | 37c | 621.69$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.82 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked PARIVISION | 39c | 600$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION | 41c | 599.99$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked PARIVISION | 62c | 583.33$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Team Spirit | 40c | 573.81$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.31 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION | 62c | 541.19$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Team Spirit | 45c | 513.96$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Team Spirit | 16c | 275$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Team Spirit | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 191$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Team Spirit | 59c | 175$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION | 41c | 174.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Team Spirit | 45c | 170$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Team Spirit | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Spirit | 57c | 162$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2d…722cbacked Team Spirit | 59c | 157.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed PARIVISION | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed PARIVISION | 70c | 116.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Spirit | 31c | 102.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked PARIVISION | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd916…e9f3backed Team Spirit | 37c | 90.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Spirit | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed Team Spirit | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Team Spirit | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf822…093ebacked Team Spirit | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…888fbacked Team Spirit | 53c | 46.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION | 41c | 45.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…6bbdbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 39.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed PARIVISION | 58c | 22.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…a963backed PARIVISION | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.