Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705648b5d98ddbab445214899c87ecf4f96b86ae41b96caa077cd2b59cf92814
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof PuckChamp, Inner Circle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked PuckChamp | 50c | 6,545$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 541 | 51.8%280 W · 261 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed PuckChamp | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.97 | 307 | 52.1%160 W · 147 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Inner Circle | 47c | 3,705$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.6 | 970 | 42.2%409 W · 561 L | -20.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b8…149bbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 2,188$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.8 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed PuckChamp | 14c | 1,720$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.31 | 659 | 25.5%168 W · 491 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Inner Circle | 52c | 1,450$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.15 | 585 | 48.5%284 W · 301 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Inner Circle | 56c | 1,420$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.72 | 482 | 49.2%237 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Inner Circle | 50c | 1,282$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.17 | 444 | 38.7%172 W · 272 L | -43.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed PuckChamp | 9c | 1,202$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.23 | 486 | 50.8%247 W · 239 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f04…1fb0backed Inner Circle | 70c | 1,130$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.56 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Inner Circle | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 704 | 35.4%249 W · 455 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed PuckChamp | 45c | 899.99$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Inner Circle | 77c | 845.19$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 927 | 56.5%524 W · 403 L | +79.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Inner Circle | 53c | 705.49$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.58 | 273 | 51.6%141 W · 132 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d9…b188backed Inner Circle | 53c | 631.43$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.43 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed Inner Circle | 75c | 600$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 155 | 67.7%105 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Inner Circle | 52c | 577.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 482 | 53.9%260 W · 222 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 537.58$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.41 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed Inner Circle | 49c | 537.14$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.94 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…4fa6backed Inner Circle | 57c | 521.1$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.23 | 183 | 49.7%91 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed PuckChamp | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 441 | 38.5%170 W · 271 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…e9b9backed Inner Circle | 54c | 472.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.57 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed PuckChamp | 48c | 447.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Inner Circle | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 925 | 53.6%496 W · 429 L | +51.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0350…a584backed PuckChamp | 36c | 365.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -80%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Inner Circle | 80c | 300.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 619 | 49.9%309 W · 310 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 676 | 48.4%327 W · 349 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed PuckChamp | 17c | 235.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 219 | 47%103 W · 116 L | +16.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…1082backed Inner Circle | 65c | 230.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed03…1caabacked PuckChamp | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Inner Circle | 63c | 185.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…babcbacked PuckChamp | 38c | 175.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…f4dabacked Inner Circle | 53c | 160.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked PuckChamp | 22c | 153.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 371 | 60.4%224 W · 147 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked PuckChamp | 36c | 144.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked PuckChamp | 47c | 119.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 688 | 47.4%326 W · 362 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Inner Circle | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 27c | 109.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…f61dbacked Inner Circle | 58c | 104.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 50c | 103.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…9f0cbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 93.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…7d5fbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked PuckChamp | 17c | 92.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 906 | 38.4%348 W · 558 L | -40.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…e597backed PuckChamp | 48c | 91.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Inner Circle | 54c | 81.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Inner Circle | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Inner Circle | 73c | 78.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 392 | 46.2%181 W · 211 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0db…d489backed PuckChamp | 39c | 77.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Inner Circle | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed PuckChamp | 26c | 71.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 394 | 41.1%162 W · 232 L | -18.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed PuckChamp | 49c | 65.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Inner Circle | 55c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…cbc6backed PuckChamp | 49c | 62.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked PuckChamp | 52c | 60.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Inner Circle | 51c | 58.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Inner Circle | 80c | 58.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 559 | 62.1%347 W · 212 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…7a55backed PuckChamp | 48c | 56.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed PuckChamp | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…cf41backed Inner Circle | 78c | 44.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Inner Circle | 57c | 44.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 181 | 37%67 W · 114 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Inner Circle | 50c | 41.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 704 | 33.1%233 W · 471 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec24…d744backed PuckChamp | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Inner Circle | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked PuckChamp | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 150 | 42.7%64 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed PuckChamp | 49c | 31.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 397 | 58.7%233 W · 164 L | +24.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…8e55backed Inner Circle | 54c | 29.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked PuckChamp | 48c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Inner Circle | 53c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 295 | 50.5%149 W · 146 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Inner Circle | 50c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…8ee6backed Inner Circle | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…e960backed PuckChamp | 49c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…5cd6backed PuckChamp | 48c | 21.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…6cb9backed PuckChamp | 48c | 21.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Inner Circle | 48c | 21.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Inner Circle | 53c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed Inner Circle | 78c | 15.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 223 | 59.2%132 W · 91 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group AInner Circle won
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Inner Circle - Game 2 WinnerInner Circle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.