Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70d7c83022261681ae192fd0e447d35d7cec7d97ef39b6de17f7d939aff2d3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 22c | 212.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 136.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…bdbabacked Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 54c | 129.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 65c | 123.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 120.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 103.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 97.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 42c | 85.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 54c | 83.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 67.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 59c | 64.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 62.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 55.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 54.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 41c | 47.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 46.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 41.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 40.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…5c6dbacked Yes | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 49c | 36.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 36.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 54c | 36.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 29.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 27.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 22.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 22.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.