Tennis · resolved market
ITF Laval: Mikael Arseneault vs Ryan Colby
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70dfed3ad952f98c1a434e5eb718c58293d5d4db29bc3c2a7fe9f4a73db8ff7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mikael Arseneaultof Mikael Arseneault, Ryan Colby
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Ryan Colby | 77c | 5,899$4,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,529.13 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mikael Arseneault | 27c | 1,554$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.4 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mikael Arseneault | 27c | 754.27$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.46 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 745.34$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.19 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ryan Colby | 39c | 484$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mikael Arseneault | 32c | 402.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.92 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Mikael Arseneault | 14c | 348.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.77 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mikael Arseneault | 58c | 314.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.73 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…339fbacked Ryan Colby | 48c | 226.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Mikael Arseneault | 14c | 224.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.77 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ryan Colby | 70c | 201.32$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Mikael Arseneault | 31c | 170$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Mikael Arseneault | 31c | 170$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Ryan Colby | 13c | 135.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Mikael Arseneault | 12c | 125$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Mikael Arseneault | 30c | 116.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Mikael Arseneault | 41c | 102.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ryan Colby | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Mikael Arseneault | 35c | 96.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ryan Colby | 49c | 86.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Mikael Arseneault | 56c | 80.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Mikael Arseneault | 15c | 78.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Mikael Arseneault | 44c | 67.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Mikael Arseneault | 37c | 65.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 72 | 75%54 W · 18 L | +11.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mikael Arseneault | 62c | 63.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Mikael Arseneault | 27c | 62.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Mikael Arseneault | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Mikael Arseneault | 29c | 50.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 49.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Mikael Arseneault | 26c | 47.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Mikael Arseneault | 25c | 43.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…bfdfbacked Ryan Colby | 50c | 42.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -24.1wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…e240backed Ryan Colby | 46c | 40.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Mikael Arseneault | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Ryan Colby | 73c | 35.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mikael Arseneault | 72c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Mikael Arseneault | 76c | 30.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Ryan Colby | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Mikael Arseneault | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Mikael Arseneault | 64c | 24.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…d660backed Mikael Arseneault | 61c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.