Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710b8b1572db6a7abea46cd827f21bedbb228f3fbbc9d7e44d61798279a577ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 345.32$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 56c | 264.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 234.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 216.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 195.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 58c | 186.71$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.22 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 180.61$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 168.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 131.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 127$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed Yes | 71c | 107.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 105.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 104.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 34c | 100.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 40c | 100.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 85.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 83.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 83.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 80.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 60c | 80.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…91e8backed Yes | 72c | 75.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 62c | 75.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 65.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 61.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 41c | 61.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 59.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 46.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 42.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 42.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 41.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 38c | 39.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 70c | 39.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 39.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 32c | 37.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 31c | 37.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 37.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 70c | 35.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 74c | 33.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 32.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…eaf5backed Yes | 48c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 58c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 57c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 25.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 62c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6b…e6b1backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 75c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 71c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.