Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7142b86a392eb15018fd77576db24ffaeae6b0be9cdd54a863a09a9b7c331b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 2,201$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 66c | 1,068$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.11 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 5c | 989.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 827.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 661.07$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 18c | 532.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…6ad7backed Yes | 54c | 309$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 71c | 273.12$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.15 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 60c | 249.85$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eec…be17backed No | 50c | 224.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 52c | 201.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 50c | 180.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea0…d508backed Yes | 57c | 174.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302a…8227backed Yes | 75c | 166.24$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 51c | 163.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 62c | 161.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 59c | 149.54$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 67c | 140.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 61c | 127.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Yes | 63c | 124.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6549backed Yes | 59c | 101.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 99.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 71c | 98.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 31c | 92.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed Yes | 66c | 76.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes | 57c | 70.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked Yes | 54c | 66.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…441dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked No | 48c | 63.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…9182backed Yes | 54c | 57.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…5a03backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…58efbacked Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed No | 33c | 42.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 42.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…aa3abacked Yes | 55c | 36.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…2310backed Yes | 72c | 34.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 58c | 31.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…998dbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 50c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Yes | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5963backed Yes | 52c | 23.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea02…23d1backed No | 51c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…b7f7backed Yes | 78c | 17.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or below on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or higher on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.