Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7143cfa5e58ff1c9cffda15c348341dfef2d6f673b127abb55c40fccbee1c5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 28c | 383.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 14c | 278.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 203.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 203.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 200.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 162.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 160.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 24c | 143.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 29c | 137.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 10c | 126.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 114$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 31c | 103.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 25c | 84.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 84.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 82.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 82.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed Yes | 31c | 64.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 61.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 32c | 60.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 36c | 56.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 24c | 55.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 22c | 54.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 28c | 49.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 35c | 48.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 47.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 46.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 34.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 33.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 31.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked No | 77c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…1c3dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146f…3358backed Yes | 44c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 71c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 74c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 72c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 13.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.