Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd24b5c3bd7684b012a4a8f79c012c3a4ee007986c259c914664e5eec82e93e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 531.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 468.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 351.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.63 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 68c | 288.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 77c | 283.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 269$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 5c | 233.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 23c | 220.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 78c | 217.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 71c | 182.47$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 179.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 173.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 166.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 162.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 49c | 157.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 71c | 153.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 68c | 146.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 115$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 114$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 77c | 93.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 24c | 89.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 87.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 69c | 72.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 30c | 66.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 61.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…9da0backed No | 32c | 60.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 56.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 66c | 54.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 53.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 27c | 52.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 49.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 49.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed No | 57c | 44.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 61c | 42.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 40.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 39.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 30c | 38.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa50b…12c4backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 58c | 33.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 79c | 33.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 72c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 39c | 28.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 71c | 28.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…29e8backed Yes | 52c | 23.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…cde9backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 79c | 17.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…234ebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.