Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71484b7aa05b599b755e0ea0be4bbff2e841cd7e8f90a43b69dbe83102aed6d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 1c | 1,368$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,046$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 597.69$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 43c | 533.44$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.93 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 447.07$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 286.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 59c | 206.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 52c | 198.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 185.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 52c | 167.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 128.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 102$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 98.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…821dbacked Yes | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 31c | 81.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 64c | 80.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 35c | 71.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 62c | 62.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 61.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 58.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 58.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 68c | 53.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 51.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 45.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…a01fbacked Yes | 48c | 44.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 42.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 65c | 41.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 40c | 36.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 74c | 32.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 35c | 29.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0b5dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 28.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 27.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 69c | 27.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 72c | 26.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 54c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 23.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 93 | 62.4%58 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.