Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdc87a76c032a2efd475d75233e31ed7804cbd56dd41caa8102c575fdbf5b177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 45c | 976.56$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 55c | 951.22$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.33 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 600.47$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 499.51$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 14c | 464.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 55c | 437.01$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.76 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 65c | 402.69$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 35c | 369.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.21 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 34c | 349.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…f8ecbacked Yes | 34c | 325$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 313.36$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.47 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed Yes | 33c | 287.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 55c | 270.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 34c | 269.96$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 39c | 259.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 67c | 184.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 181.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 44c | 171.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 162.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 161.72$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 40c | 138.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 136.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 133.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 68c | 130$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 119.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 119.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.02 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 104.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 91.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 50c | 89.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 38c | 88.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 58c | 83.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 66c | 78.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 69.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 68.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 43c | 65.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 58.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 65c | 54.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed Yes | 52c | 54.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 52.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 66c | 52.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 68c | 49.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 33c | 49.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 60c | 48.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 71c | 45.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 68c | 45.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 37c | 44.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 68c | 44.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 42c | 42.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 54c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 36c | 42.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 60c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 61c | 38.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 34c | 38.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 36.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 61c | 36.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 36.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 69c | 35.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 38c | 35.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…13b1backed Yes | 32c | 34.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 52c | 33.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 37c | 33.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 61c | 32.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 32.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…924cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 65c | 31.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19fc…1a12backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed No | 63c | 29.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 48c | 28.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 37c | 26.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked No | 70c | 26.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 53c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 50c | 23.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 67c | 22.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed No | 65c | 20.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 20.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 18.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 62c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…d0f9backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.