Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71648ceafbd31490e4cbb3c2d9a607a64ce86ca497c7adbb6d62ede4253c5877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 809.71$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.26 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 19c | 414.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 322.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 313.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 270$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 46c | 237.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 56c | 236.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 221.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 46c | 199$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 198.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 193$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 178.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 139.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 34c | 139.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 129.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 113.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 109.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 96.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 56c | 96.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 50c | 91.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 73.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 71.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 70.32$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 42c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 68.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 66.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 64.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 55c | 57.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 29c | 55.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 54c | 54.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 51.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 48.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 48c | 47.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 55c | 46.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 80c | 45.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 44.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 68c | 43.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 44c | 43.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…08e3backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 41.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 36.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 35.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 32.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 32.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 48c | 28.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 27.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 72c | 25.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…c32abacked Yes | 50c | 25.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 77c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.