Fifa International · resolved market
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718f7b1c55b675c3ecf23b07e178ad709b99e2e2b85a25229bb38100648e8c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 0c | 42,643$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 4,254$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 72c | 2,500$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.7 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 1,502$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.18 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,477$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.66 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 27c | 859.53$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.46 | 644 | 43.3%279 W · 365 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 73c | 599.95$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.9 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 72c | 587.5$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 71c | 499.97$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.98 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 71c | 495.67$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.11 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 64c | 492.22$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.07 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…de87backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 123 | 20.3%25 W · 98 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 224 | 19.6%44 W · 180 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 71c | 267.04$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.92 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…bb21backed Yes | 29c | 258.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.62 | 308 | 18.5%57 W · 251 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 254.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.52 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…7ac5backed Yes | 29c | 241.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe655…2d93backed Yes | 38c | 236.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…0d48backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…101ebacked Yes | 32c | 153.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 71c | 139.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 29c | 138.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 119.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…1659backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 68c | 111.18$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 29c | 106.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…a0b0backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 373 | 20.9%78 W · 295 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb77…9b07backed Yes | 29c | 101.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 118 | 26.3%31 W · 87 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…235cbacked Yes | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 231 | 24.7%57 W · 174 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…aedebacked Yes | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…228bbacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…9cd0backed No | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 559 | 42.4%237 W · 322 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…9bfebacked Yes | 30c | 34.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…75b9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked No | 73c | 28.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 348 | 44.3%154 W · 194 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Egypt to score first vs. Belgium?this page
- Belgium to score first vs. Egypt?No won
- Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.