CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7199ff4665ad7d43ce93b67b2ec4de647b227269f8663f25c3cebc6696f3bd93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Passion UA, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Passion UA | 3c | 9,701$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.01 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…d40cbacked Passion UA | 45c | 867.66$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.45 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Alliance | 55c | 499.91$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Alliance | 57c | 441.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Alliance | 60c | 397.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.84 | 277 | 40.8%113 W · 164 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed Passion UA | 40c | 366.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…40d7backed Passion UA | 45c | 299.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…4d93backed Alliance | 54c | 278.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.17 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…b45fbacked Alliance | 74c | 267.47$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Alliance | 58c | 241.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.26 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Passion UA | 30c | 229.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.82 | 392 | 58.2%228 W · 164 L | +18.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…afbcbacked Alliance | 56c | 229.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…5f94backed Passion UA | 18c | 212.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Alliance | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 334 | 52.1%174 W · 160 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…d75fbacked Passion UA | 24c | 193.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Passion UA | 26c | 167.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Passion UA | 23c | 124.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 603 | 58.5%353 W · 250 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Alliance | 55c | 123.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Passion UA | 29c | 109.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Passion UA | 45c | 106.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e4…f089backed Passion UA | 30c | 102.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 321 | 38.3%123 W · 198 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked Alliance | 78c | 100.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Passion UA | 23c | 99.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 635 | 41.1%261 W · 374 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…b4c0backed Alliance | 57c | 72.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…f527backed Passion UA | 25c | 60.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 488 | 26.2%128 W · 360 L | -44.3wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…cac7backed Alliance | 72c | 54.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…5814backed Passion UA | 46c | 51.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Passion UA | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Alliance | 75c | 46.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…f8bbbacked Passion UA | 45c | 45.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Passion UA | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 446 | 41.3%184 W · 262 L | -28.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34c0…b0e0backed Alliance | 60c | 40.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Alliance | 77c | 37.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Passion UA | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ea34backed Alliance | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Alliance | 77c | 28.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe5…cf64backed Passion UA | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…41f4backed Alliance | 70c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Alliance - Map 1 WinnerAlliance won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.