Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cc348e502a4a6a2125e006abeb6737c598f95bdbc11165d530965f70c14031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 32c | 3,251$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.86 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 49c | 1,617$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 920.67$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.1 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 16c | 753.91$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.63 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 570.75$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.85 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 49c | 560$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 50c | 553.47$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 526.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 17c | 515$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 355.63$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 270.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 225.78$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 134.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 30c | 127.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 70c | 124.67$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under | 38c | 115$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…7c66backed Over | 58c | 98.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Under | 50c | 93.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 35c | 89.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 61.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 77c | 57.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 52c | 49.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed Over | 51c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 58c | 22.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…f53abacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Over | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.