Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd7e1c3be1822c6fbcffb8188071fcaadf11051dc05e8c7aa34ae564d03fbd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 61c | 6,571$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,570.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 1,865$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.75 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 39c | 1,807$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.32 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 62c | 1,788$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.91 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 29c | 1,544$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.31 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…095ebacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 944.38$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 896.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 782.1$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.19 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 40c | 684$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 39c | 450.87$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 39c | 393$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 3c | 345.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 26c | 341.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 72c | 306.49$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 20c | 303.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 43c | 300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Under | 60c | 243.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.72 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 40c | 218.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 212.63$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…1bd7backed Over | 10c | 210$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 39c | 196$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 10c | 195.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 39c | 158.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Under | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 24c | 141.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 38c | 108.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 32c | 94.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 29c | 86.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 28c | 68.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Under | 60c | 66.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9293…b5fdbacked Over | 40c | 43.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 40c | 41.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Under | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445b…a19bbacked Under | 64c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.