MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e2caf0d9a12aad73288351f9c9cb98a6b9c9c50127303f74a71e54183900a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 33c | 14,381$4,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,790.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 60c | 10,000$5,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.73 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 5,919$4,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.12 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 2,782$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.66 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 45c | 334.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 41c | 295$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…004dbacked Under | 5c | 270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 6cpaid | +507.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 68c | 265.78$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 235.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 47c | 214.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 74c | 194.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 74c | 192$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Under | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Over | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Over | 73c | 118.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 43c | 117.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…8fd0backed Under | 43c | 102.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 74c | 93.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 90.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…b776backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Over | 74c | 78.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 46c | 71.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 45c | 70.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 69c | 62.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 74c | 57.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 56c | 57.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 37c | 27.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.