MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08683f56600ec928f374be71af3b5b4bf6b2386d318242f6ec608814491162c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,148.83 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 5,612$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,574.07 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 4,177$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.27 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 3,448$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 2,534$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.54 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 54c | 1,722$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.31 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 44c | 1,154$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.95 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 753.39$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 45c | 675$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.89 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 74c | 419.24$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1112…3104backed Over | 49c | 342.24$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 260.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 52c | 237.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 187.54$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 19c | 158$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 53c | 108.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 42c | 97.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 53c | 97.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 74.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 38c | 69.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 49c | 46.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 41.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 49c | 38.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 49c | 38.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 49c | 38.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 36c | 36.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 47c | 35.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156e…cf6fbacked Over | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…effbbacked Over | 49c | 22.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 57c | 21.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 71c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.