Token Launches · resolved market
Will USD0++ stabilize again before February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71ed7fc5a4e40863800058db401567c150867cb5f4bb5d45fd4eb8ffd60b44c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $307,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $373,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b87…d95cbacked Yes | 2c | 61,783$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…e03abacked Yes | 6c | 40,243$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,225.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 2c | 10,803$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 6,674$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.59 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 6c | 6,519$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 6,267$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,326$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 4,260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,240$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,894$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…c1b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,717$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Yes | 10c | 1,952$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 3c | 1,952$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…e9a0backed Yes | 6c | 1,546$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d2…8e7cbacked Yes | 6c | 920.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…0628backed Yes | 6c | 884.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 8c | 849.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd408…0883backed Yes | 3c | 787.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…1780backed Yes | 4c | 775.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 20c | 750.84$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes | 3c | 739.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…cdc2backed Yes | 18c | 700$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked No | 77c | 600$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 7c | 589.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12be…afaabacked Yes | 4c | 580.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 16c | 510.28$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 427.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…a052backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 324$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…4304backed Yes | 8c | 316.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 5c | 311.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 7c | 285$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4426…387dbacked Yes | 5c | 267.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Yes | 6c | 253.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…e8bcbacked Yes | 6c | 244$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 7c | 200.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1d72backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 6c | 184.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 9c | 178.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…442ebacked Yes | 9c | 128.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f4…d060backed Yes | 29c | 121.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 18c | 100.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…1496backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.