Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71fb5e9bf1f0e21bbbb0d28bca37a9a8e8b9a55d80f031ab4c7079e3de5e037f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 2,207$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 1,708$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 686.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 580.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 562$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 458.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 18c | 399.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 13c | 210.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 201.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…831abacked Yes | 5c | 190.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 6.2%4 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 14c | 154.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 7c | 142.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Yes | 9c | 135.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 111.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 22c | 102.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 98.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 15c | 88.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 84.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 20c | 71.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 51.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 45.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 30.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 27.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed No | 78c | 23.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.