Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf5a41843d3e0b5c342532aaf65a0ff7146829fbcd5b768129a2809d445de9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 1,543$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed Yes | 2c | 788.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 686.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 29c | 533.53$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 75c | 532.73$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.73 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 446.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 3c | 423.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 409.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 368.93$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 280.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 75c | 267$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 188.6$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 27c | 183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 75c | 173.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…723fbacked Yes | 27c | 162.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 152.66$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579f…3803backed No | 69c | 138$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 30c | 131.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 16c | 130.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 27c | 120.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb5…49f6backed No | 77c | 112.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 111.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 24c | 110.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…a859backed Yes | 22c | 94.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 12c | 92.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…c148backed Yes | 24c | 91.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…e4f9backed Yes | 15c | 88.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed No | 74c | 67.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 15c | 67.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 58.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa811…75b8backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 24c | 51.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 46.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 70c | 45.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 43.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 42.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 24c | 42.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 42.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 27c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 38.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 75c | 30.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…add8backed No | 78c | 29.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…fd86backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…62c6backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 20.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.