Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5c9e3518a188836027f6a4a32974ac43dbcbccbaacdb4f67c4190c5d49feee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 34c | 694.55$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.52 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 685.49$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 62c | 601.73$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 46c | 529.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 64c | 471.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 50c | 455.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.4 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 382.15$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 63c | 358.74$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 352.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 344.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 51c | 273.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 34c | 229.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 206.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.86 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked No | 20c | 193.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 190$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 43c | 180.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 44c | 168.8$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 29c | 167.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 155$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 39c | 150.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked No | 67c | 149.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 147.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 139.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…cb37backed Yes | 37c | 135.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 67c | 134.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 35c | 122.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 57c | 105.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 103.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 101.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 67c | 97.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 96.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 37c | 96.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 37c | 95.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 91.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 86.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 84.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 84.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 59c | 80.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 49c | 74.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 71.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 70.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 50c | 67.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 66.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 38c | 65.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 26c | 56.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 53.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 52.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 52.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 51.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 51.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d7…7689backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 69c | 49.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 54c | 49.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 48.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 46.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 66c | 46.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed No | 62c | 43.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 48c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 45c | 38.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 36.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…88fbbacked No | 39c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 31c | 32.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 31.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 27.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x722c…083abacked Yes | 64c | 24.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 24.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 67c | 21.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…d0c5backed No | 65c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…9dadbacked Yes | 80c | 19.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 64c | 15.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 14.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.