Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535506e1bf6ccf624872214d7ef586ff61ffa0082fc1c7ad9c7ef99f0c5fdcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47fc…5ec3backed Yes | 0c | 20,347$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 1,072$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 24c | 970.15$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.08 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 672.26$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Yes | 40c | 599.57$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 23c | 390.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 363.13$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 362.18$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 358.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 342.38$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 10c | 332$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 300.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…b4cebacked No | 77c | 260.22$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 260$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 258.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…2770backed Yes | 20c | 251.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 24c | 212.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 34c | 210.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 208.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3525…4964backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 189.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 183.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 162.58$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 60c | 150.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 141.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 15c | 141.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 140.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 124.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 114.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 109.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 107.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 19c | 103.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 77c | 102.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 45c | 100.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4423…47fdbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…d965backed Yes | 12c | 92.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 18c | 91.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 91.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 90.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 20c | 89.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 89.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 21c | 88.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 87.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 67c | 81.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 79.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…9dadbacked Yes | 76c | 76.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed No | 69c | 73.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 19c | 58.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 55.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…7260backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 46c | 49.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 80c | 46.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 46.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 24c | 43.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 43.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…5b7bbacked Yes | 72c | 41.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 39.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 64c | 38.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 71c | 38.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 48c | 35.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 70c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 31.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 65c | 28.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 80c | 26.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c6d5backed Yes | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…ac42backed No | 56c | 22.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 70c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 77c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 55c | 18.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 80c | 12.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.