NFL · resolved market
Raiders vs. Broncos
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7213669db30a8d7bff707924a3eca707e8b322591fd36f7d5b144d325eaf4be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Raiders, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Raiders | 2c | 14,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Raiders | 40c | 5,978$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.01 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Broncos | 59c | 4,592$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.35 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Broncos | 45c | 3,616$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.09 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Raiders | 54c | 3,068$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.52 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Broncos | 59c | 2,057$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.15 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Broncos | 61c | 1,564$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.84 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Raiders | 43c | 1,000$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.64 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Raiders | 38c | 880.08$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.43 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Broncos | 57c | 859.63$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.64 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Raiders | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff5…793ebacked Raiders | 4c | 628.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Raiders | 62c | 557.1$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.69 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…4551backed Raiders | 78c | 522.39$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.81 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Broncos | 58c | 480.95$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…9c6ebacked Raiders | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Raiders | 45c | 386.09$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.74 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Raiders | 37c | 340.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…6e07backed Broncos | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Broncos | 58c | 326.9$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.3 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Raiders | 42c | 323.81$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…bbe5backed Broncos | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…4b21backed Raiders | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…b2aabacked Raiders | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed Raiders | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Raiders | 29c | 295.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e61abacked Raiders | 48c | 292.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Broncos | 30c | 273.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.46 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Raiders | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Raiders | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Raiders | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…8c07backed Raiders | 41c | 191.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Raiders | 46c | 186.96$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Broncos | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…38dbbacked Raiders | 70c | 143.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Broncos | 72c | 139.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ed…0bb4backed Raiders | 14c | 131.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Broncos | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Broncos | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Raiders | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Raiders | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4d…2ae9backed Broncos | 33c | 99.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Broncos | 44c | 97.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Broncos | 29c | 91.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…dfd0backed Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…aa6ebacked Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Broncos | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Raiders | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed Broncos | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Raiders | 41c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 205 | 57.6%118 W · 87 L | +16.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Broncos | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Raiders | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…a1b2backed Raiders | 41c | 53.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…ebfabacked Broncos | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Broncos | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed Broncos | 33c | 49.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Raiders | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Raiders | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcc…7153backed Broncos | 59c | 35.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Broncos | 43c | 33.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c9…396cbacked Broncos | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…998dbacked Broncos | 59c | 29.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Broncos | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Broncos | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Broncos | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed Broncos | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.