Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723e7b44f14cc5cf82cdd9344619ff2af33dfa0fb47191d495d966b8c7a46a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 3c | 1,611$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 4c | 911.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 4c | 712$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 661.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 463.43$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.95 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 21c | 415.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed No | 5c | 289.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 31c | 278.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 240.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 230.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed No | 76c | 223.17$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 193.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 188$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 19c | 172.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 160.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 36c | 158.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 154.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 58c | 122$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 115.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed No | 79c | 112.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 105.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…a3febacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 99.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 91.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 87.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 81.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 73.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 69.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked No | 75c | 64.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 58.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 65c | 57.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 57.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 56.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 37c | 54.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 75c | 53.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes | 58c | 52.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 50.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 70c | 49.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 45.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 24c | 44.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 34c | 43.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 27c | 40.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 36.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce9…a994backed Yes | 54c | 34.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 62c | 25.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 72c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 35 | 82.9%29 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 14.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…d759backed No | 78c | 13.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.