Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725f898d666421063737b2bb25287089112b8182f5e967bac1313369d978f367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 2,011$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 79c | 1,694$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.76 | 148 | 87.8%130 W · 18 L | +28.3wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 15c | 981.86$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 605.9$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 15c | 584.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.94 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 582.64$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.34 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 456.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.92 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 341.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.83 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed Yes | 10c | 294.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.36 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +208%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 280.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.98 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 70c | 267.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 10c | 227.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 195.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…5666backed No | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 50c | 158.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.15 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 146.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 133$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 120.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 70c | 117.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 27c | 110.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 102.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 22c | 98.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 92.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 74.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 28c | 65.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 44c | 63.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 71c | 57.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 49c | 54.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 54.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…ef0abacked No | 78c | 51.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 79c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 45.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 41.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 34.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 40c | 34.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 34c | 30.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 29.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 67c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.