Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5b4befdb33b7bf04ae1316673e70b0e3d2720c4ab2874bf71b4a1473444f23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 795.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 322$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 204.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 203.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 196.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 160.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 64c | 159.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 154.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 75c | 121$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 110.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 107.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 31c | 95.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 95.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 71c | 94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 31c | 88.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 73.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 66.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 63c | 58.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 55.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 38c | 51.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 70c | 49.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 48.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 32c | 46.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 43.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 42.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 70c | 34.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 77c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 23.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.