Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00308dc1b68ab3e0226f9f5f02db0d0e34aed7507dc5f0eaf81a4112d4b7497a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefe9…9422backed Yes | 1c | 25,205$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…1b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,341$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 69 | 1.4%1 W · 68 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e59…e56abacked Yes | 1c | 4,552$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 16c | 3,365$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.86 | 237 | 28.7%68 W · 169 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f53…4834backed Yes | 12c | 1,706$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,295$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 1,269$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.73 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,076$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.8 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf928…2da3backed Yes | 26c | 1,023$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 73c | 936.9$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.45 | 148 | 87.8%130 W · 18 L | +28.3wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…6853backed Yes | 12c | 830.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 74c | 754.91$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 167 | 95.8%160 W · 7 L | +62.3wins | +0.37per pick | 58cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 86+0.32 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 661.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,877 | 18.5%348 W · 1,529 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 645.8$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 518.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 8c | 493.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 136 | 13.2%18 W · 118 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd668…c794backed Yes | 13c | 446.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 440.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.25 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 13c | 402.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 311.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 46c | 309.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 291.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 291$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 59c | 284.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.84 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 270.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 44c | 257.13$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 45c | 232.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.53 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed Yes | 7c | 231.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +1,329.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 13c | 218.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 198$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 56c | 175.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 174.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Yes | 77c | 164.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 156.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 135.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 133.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 44c | 133$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 124.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 111.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 106.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 13c | 100.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 197 | 4.6%9 W · 188 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 56c | 99.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 697 | 35.3%246 W · 451 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 98.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed Yes | 11c | 97.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 94.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 54c | 91.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 55c | 89.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 89.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 86.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 85.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 34c | 84.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 78.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 37c | 78.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 44c | 77.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…9d90backed Yes | 43c | 69.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 64.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 36c | 63.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 61c | 54.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 29c | 54.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…9236backed No | 56c | 53.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 52c | 47.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 46.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 53c | 43.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…87c1backed Yes | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 43c | 42.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 41.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 62c | 40.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 64c | 40.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 43c | 39.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 37.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 36.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 36.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 35.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 60c | 34.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 218 | 58.3%127 W · 91 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…80bcbacked No | 58c | 33.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…243bbacked No | 58c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 53c | 33.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 30.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 56c | 29.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 44c | 29.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 55c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 48c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.