Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lazio vs. Plzen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72605f3e704988d366ffa88966566ea817475087f446569f3b35e6bedaedd0ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed No | 34c | 9,531$3,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,251.76 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 73c | 5,355$3,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.5 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 34c | 2,062$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.98 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…161fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,288$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 67c | 984.44$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.35 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 68c | 833.88$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.84 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 77c | 813.05$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.04 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 495.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.14 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 21c | 241.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.55 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 76c | 161.66$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 54c | 157.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed No | 22c | 119.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fa…4d49backed Yes | 33c | 119.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 68c | 115.38$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 66c | 64.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…176bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…ad7bbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Yes | 68c | 31.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6871backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…279dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Yes | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd761…8e1dbacked Yes | 78c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio vs. Plzen end in a draw?this page
- Will Lazio win on 2025-03-13?No won
- Will Plzen win on 2025-03-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.