Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727cace18d3a290de7fe395eadc30008dd7e32198cee3f0574f4916e74814945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 3c | 14,679$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.05 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,159$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 41c | 949.99$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.49 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 372.86$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 365.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 4c | 294$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 39c | 253.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…e004backed Yes | 42c | 228.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 39c | 199.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 42c | 182.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…0788backed Yes | 43c | 160.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 34c | 147.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 61c | 130$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8972…ab4bbacked Yes | 45c | 117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 55c | 113.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 42c | 83.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4be…58f2backed Yes | 28c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…a2b8backed Yes | 39c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 39c | 54.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed No | 69c | 50.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 41c | 49.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 42.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…f95abacked Yes | 40c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…0b71backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…6521backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…611abacked Yes | 54c | 29.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…a61abacked Yes | 67c | 26.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 50c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f81…86fbbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on November 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or higher on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.