Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727cb5d4bb2e11fc52adc6a5736c7b1e21cea808e3d6163ce0c2ed726fd07ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Adelaide United FC, Western Sydney Wanderers FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Adelaide United FC | 14c | 1,499$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.14 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Adelaide United FC | 31c | 645.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.2 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 77c | 259.77$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Adelaide United FC | 13c | 231.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.29 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Adelaide United FC | 29c | 118.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Adelaide United FC | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed Adelaide United FC | 16c | 104.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.