Australian A League · resolved market
Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x005b720710b9e5b407d6551948565bfea09a887036f6f2fc4ac2fab994c9ebb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,041 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,988$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.47 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 75c | 1,649$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.06 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 32c | 1,600$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…a44cbacked Over | 68c | 1,459$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 75c | 930.43$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.43 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 28c | 829.8$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 798$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266a…15d3backed Over | 68c | 741.18$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 647.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.37 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 68c | 573.53$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.53 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 67c | 573.45$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.77 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 78c | 562$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 67c | 553$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Under | 33c | 553$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 31c | 411.67$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.72 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 66c | 380.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 33c | 379.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 32c | 374.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Over | 69c | 264.09$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Under | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 68c | 146.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed Under | 9c | 143.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 32c | 114.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 32c | 86.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 69c | 76.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 78c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Western Sydney Wanderers FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Western Sydney Wanderers FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.