Asian League · resolved market
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x727d09fc16cbb682b33e1c23d4b4e56f6cdcfbc4a2c692fee0e0921afcb696db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 741.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 43c | 488.03$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.47 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 73c | 368.08$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 306.69$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 74c | 272$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…d947backed Yes | 41c | 265.41$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 26c | 253$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 231.03$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 224.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 216.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 198.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 184$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…a26dbacked Yes | 35c | 169.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 158.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.11 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…a658backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Yes | 27c | 131.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 122.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 19c | 96.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +45.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 71c | 94.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 87.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 30c | 87.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 21c | 79.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 27c | 64.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 57c | 64.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 69c | 61.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 19c | 61.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked No | 24c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…e611backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 63c | 32.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 31.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 63c | 29.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 79c | 26.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…4e09backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 64c | 25.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 57c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 70c | 21.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 57c | 20.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 57c | 20.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 57c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 57c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.