Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72d2021820661baf60ee8f8dd553843f209ca73aae591246c24b541433047a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,130 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3620…f733backed Yes | 3c | 782.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 9c | 739$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 41c | 600$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 6c | 467.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 271.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 47c | 263.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.81 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…3c13backed Yes | 67c | 228.85$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 58c | 224.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed Yes | 64c | 222.74$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 207.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 206.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 37c | 177.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 172.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…ba17backed Yes | 49c | 132.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…f6d3backed Yes | 14c | 122.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 44c | 119.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 46c | 96.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 84.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 36c | 84.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.87 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 26c | 73.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 44c | 72.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 72.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 47c | 70.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 62c | 64.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…530abacked Yes | 60c | 64.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 49c | 63.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 58c | 61.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…4bcabacked Yes | 67c | 59.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…18cbbacked Yes | 71c | 58.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 57.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed Yes | 72c | 49.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 38c | 47.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…d2d8backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 73c | 34.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 73c | 34.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 51c | 31.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 31.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…88e2backed Yes | 68c | 29.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 26.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 62c | 24.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 61c | 23.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c42…8d12backed Yes | 70c | 23.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 53c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…a005backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…9e4bbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…14f5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…5045backed No | 60c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…3d07backed No | 67c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.