Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f486875b1642575d5bfbb46175f642160a9c947377cb10de183a8c9c64c9746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,311 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 0c | 10,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 4,134$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.14 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 1,879$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed No | 2c | 1,420$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 2c | 934.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…5e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 667.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 40c | 610.51$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.27 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 3c | 427.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 15c | 363.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.74 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 41c | 323$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 269.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 29c | 212.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 6c | 210$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 22c | 208.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 200.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 189.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.44 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 173.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed Yes | 65c | 170.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 34c | 169.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 31c | 168.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 150.13$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 13c | 148.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6420…8741backed No | 71c | 140.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 124.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 23c | 110.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 100.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 31c | 98.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 22c | 92.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 58c | 86.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 64c | 86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 18c | 83.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 27c | 75.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…5319backed Yes | 14c | 73.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +610.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 21c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 63.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 17c | 63.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…1904backed Yes | 19c | 58.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 55.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 42c | 54.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed No | 70c | 47.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 29c | 45.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 49c | 41.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 37.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 35.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 40c | 29.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f2…d2d8backed Yes | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 70c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…71b3backed Yes | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.