Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72d26c12dd0361a77b035ec0c8a8b8368a29331c91220aa47372f4437b6b2820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c09…e652backed No | 0c | 18,131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 60c | 999.82$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.46 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 48c | 365.64$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 65c | 221.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 210.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 60c | 183.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 64c | 152.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 65c | 118.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 54c | 114.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 70c | 112.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 71c | 101.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 25c | 96.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 91.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 90.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 61c | 89.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 58c | 86.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 48c | 84.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 39c | 84.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 40c | 82.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 64c | 75.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 66.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 64c | 65.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…f248backed Yes | 70c | 64.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ce1dbacked No | 44c | 63.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked No | 26c | 60.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 44c | 60.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 65c | 59.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 70c | 48.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 65c | 43.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 65c | 40.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 40.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 62c | 39.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 27c | 39.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 52c | 38.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 37.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 58c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 61c | 32.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 66c | 31.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd247…a04cbacked Yes | 62c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…dd84backed No | 38c | 31.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 35c | 31.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 61c | 31.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 44c | 28.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 52c | 28.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 66c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 60c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…67f7backed Yes | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 62c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…3058backed Yes | 62c | 22.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…5090backed No | 52c | 21.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Yes | 70c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 62c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 75c | 17.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 65c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 73c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 69c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.