NFL · resolved market
Will the Dolphins win by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72eb57ae833b4330abff4a331c0965c7b8f1479ca22721d143019b2b7ef52853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 52c | 2,056$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.31 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 49c | 1,194$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.8 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 48c | 999.96$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.98 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 50c | 971.94$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 48c | 290$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.83 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…d6f8backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…c5b7backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…92b5backed No | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked No | 48c | 162.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…2035backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8df9backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1538…2a5dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Dolphins win by 3 or more points?this page
- Will there be 49 or more combined points scored?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.