NFL · resolved market
Will there be 49 or more combined points scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f8d34d2f601caa4459995e5b03e523a5094c783eb3dfc62c26add0b028f1fd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,905$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.91 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d2…cfb1backed No | 48c | 736.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed No | 51c | 649.61$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.31 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 49c | 499.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 37c | 440$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 51c | 391.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Yes | 49c | 389$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.61 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 49c | 364.65$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 11c | 345$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 47c | 270$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.9 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 51c | 264.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.97 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 52c | 232$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 48c | 203.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed Yes | 50c | 118.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Yes | 59c | 110.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…b0fcbacked Yes | 54c | 92.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…9b19backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…ba78backed No | 71c | 70.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 50c | 59.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed No | 51c | 58.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 53c | 41.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf869…52a7backed Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…abb7backed Yes | 50c | 32.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 49 or more combined points scored?this page
- Will the Dolphins win by 3 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.