Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f2dd93a4bc7370b8e68763ff243bef0572a3f49c02c8690798e31cdfea53cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 54c | 575.52$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 73c | 437.18$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.06 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 355.28$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 312$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 308.36$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 226.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 207.58$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 61c | 199.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 53c | 199.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 55c | 186$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 175.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 53c | 162$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 158.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 149.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 41c | 140.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 46c | 139.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 55c | 131.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 126.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 56c | 124.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 124$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 112.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 42c | 96.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 95.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 54c | 92.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 53c | 86.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 80.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 52c | 77.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 73.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 72.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 72.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 70.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 65.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed No | 46c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 32c | 59.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 56.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 54c | 55.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 60c | 54.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 41c | 53.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 37c | 51.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…09e7backed No | 46c | 50.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 49.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 49.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 51c | 47.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…4d78backed Yes | 57c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked Yes | 56c | 42.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 38.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 38.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 37.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 37.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 43c | 37.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 53c | 36.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 45c | 35.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 46c | 32.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 49c | 28.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 39c | 27.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 49c | 25.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 56c | 25.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked No | 45c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 46c | 22.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 60c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e6…babebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 63c | 16.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.