Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76a0df08d7226b49213c55fd9893b1d11a02dbd091d184db88a9d6f8469f2c3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 79c | 2,525$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.77 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 1,284$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 631.72$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 3c | 462.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 310.64$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 69c | 281.69$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 266.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 265.6$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 64c | 250.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 74c | 209.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 205.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x384f…58adbacked Yes | 77c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 25c | 199.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 24c | 190.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 181.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 180.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 176.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 175.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 23c | 173.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 27c | 162$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 159.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 156.27$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 151.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 16c | 133.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.31 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 49c | 119.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 114.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 72c | 114.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 50c | 105.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 100.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 85.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 26c | 81.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 75.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 32c | 75.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 70.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 62.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 28c | 59.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 55c | 59.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 59.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 58.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 53.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 23c | 50.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…2c60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 21c | 48.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa953…da6dbacked No | 63c | 47.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 69c | 46.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 44.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3774…b424backed No | 61c | 44.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 43.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 40.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed No | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 37.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 34c | 37.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 33c | 35.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 34.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 33.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 30.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 30.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 66c | 30.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 62c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 18.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acf…93b3backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 66c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 13.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or below on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.