Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x730a5c74640b62bfa66cd1142c5d2120a0ca7076cf16baa44c3daec65e9c5e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 27c | 711.43$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 244.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 235.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 196.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 151.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 121.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 106.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…9106backed Yes | 28c | 94.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 68c | 94.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes | 12c | 93.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 12c | 86.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 82.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 81.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 78.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 78.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 59.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 21c | 59.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 56.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 46.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 24c | 44.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 41.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 38.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 37.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 58c | 31.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 50c | 24.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.