Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1e5e74cb51fa9d43b939aa5c543d083bc66ce363880088c1ab0ec2e911750d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 748.74$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.66 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcb…bf61backed No | 59c | 264.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 247.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 158.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 48c | 128.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 36c | 112.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 109.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 56c | 96.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked No | 74c | 96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 62c | 88.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 37c | 86.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 42c | 81.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 77.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 72.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 68.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 64.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 40c | 64.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 61c | 57.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 56.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 54.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 74c | 53.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 49c | 51.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 40c | 49.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 48.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 63c | 46.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 39c | 45.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 26c | 45.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 51c | 42.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 41.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 35c | 33.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 33.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 32.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 38c | 31.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 41c | 31.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 63c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes | 37c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 40c | 29.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 29.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 28.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 28.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 54c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 63c | 28.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 44c | 27.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 71c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed Yes | 38c | 26.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 55c | 24.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 47c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 69c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c40…fcf2backed No | 54c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 17.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 71c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked No | 64c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516f…8352backed Yes | 72c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.