Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b2701ab1331cc7f4b2048e02f5c8670e0c201d3d39a81acbe490f7e10808d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 28c | 254.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 207.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589e…5bf8backed Yes | 48c | 207.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 71c | 188.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 164.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 163.57$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 153.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 149.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 131.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 112.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 65c | 112.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 73c | 109.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 108.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 85.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 84.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 32c | 84.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 67c | 80.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 76.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 42c | 71.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 68.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 22c | 66.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 63.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 64c | 63.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 29c | 59.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 27c | 59.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa138…7a9bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 67c | 52.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 33c | 51.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 49.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 46.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 37.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 36c | 33.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 33.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 48c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked No | 76c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 62c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 70c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 22.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 72c | 20.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…25f9backed No | 75c | 15.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.