Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73131161bfd14da6ca975e8b150511e4ab9fa93efeeacf1a117f7c6dd0b7ae37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof Hive, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 74c | 3,057$2,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.82 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Hive | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 893 | 41.5%371 W · 522 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…3f25backed Hive | 28c | 1,521$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Hive | 26c | 1,380$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.8 | 944 | 42.3%399 W · 545 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…f944backed RE.Arise | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 207 | 67.1%139 W · 68 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked RE.Arise | 78c | 403.03$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.72 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…6bedbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 80c | 372.66$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Hive | 19c | 298.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 249.7$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 1,443 | 48.7%703 W · 740 L | +29.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Hive | 26c | 197.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 364 | 52.5%191 W · 173 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hive | 24c | 151.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed RE.Arise | 76c | 137.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 331 | 65.3%216 W · 115 L | +23.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed RE.Arise | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…797abacked RE.Arise | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Hive | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -17.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Hive | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 98.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Hive | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…a3dfbacked Hive | 25c | 90.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed RE.Arise | 80c | 89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2c2ebacked Hive | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Hive | 24c | 86.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Hive | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,151 | 47.8%550 W · 601 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 63.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed RE.Arise | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Hive | 24c | 59.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Hive | 29c | 52.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 50.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Hive | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 436 | 49.1%214 W · 222 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Hive | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 583 | 46.3%270 W · 313 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed RE.Arise | 71c | 41.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 40.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed RE.Arise | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…7d44backed RE.Arise | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…b34cbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed RE.Arise | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed RE.Arise | 74c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 12.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed RE.Arise | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise (BO3) - European Pro League Group ARE.Arise won
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)RE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.