Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b1148532067ff7b2fc188aea3a1fb2ac5a34a1c1d067f85b0a29ba39f14c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof Hive, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Hive | 15c | 10,020$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.8 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 73c | 6,071$4,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.72 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Hive | 27c | 3,380$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.49 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 1,870$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 17c | 1,738$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.4 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Hive | 13c | 1,544$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Hive | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Hive | 31c | 963.66$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Hive | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.85 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Hive | 20c | 460$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Hive | 28c | 395.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise | 72c | 339.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed RE.Arise | 68c | 300.72$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.23 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 287.53$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed RE.Arise | 80c | 253.31$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hive | 17c | 241.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RE.Arise | 69c | 229.25$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 187.5$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 78c | 186.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed RE.Arise | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 124.48$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Hive | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Hive | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed RE.Arise | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed RE.Arise | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Hive | 29c | 58.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Hive | 29c | 55.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 50.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Hive | 28c | 42.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Hive | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed RE.Arise | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked RE.Arise | 69c | 29.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed RE.Arise | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675d…a3a0backed RE.Arise | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RE.Arise | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…88dfbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed RE.Arise | 67c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise (BO3) - European Pro League Group ARE.Arise won
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)RE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.