Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67ff075dd88becabbcdb3c9a90847e950474e9c8d3f046c04aee0cbb5d27c71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof Hive, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Hive | 26c | 2,035$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed RE.Arise | 76c | 1,844$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.19 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ee…01aebacked Hive | 27c | 671.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Hive | 22c | 532.57$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Hive | 13c | 315$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed RE.Arise | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Hive | 22c | 228.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked RE.Arise | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 187.77$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Hive | 18c | 173.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 77c | 171.46$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed Hive | 24c | 167.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hive | 20c | 163.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Hive | 17c | 163.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed RE.Arise | 76c | 161.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Hive | 18c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Hive | 23c | 131.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed RE.Arise | 77c | 128.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Hive | 16c | 120.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 73c | 106.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed RE.Arise | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 71.55$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Hive | 21c | 70.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed RE.Arise | 76c | 69.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Hive | 21c | 66.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Hive | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…cf76backed Hive | 24c | 53.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 433 | 44.8%194 W · 239 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed RE.Arise | 77c | 53.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d6…2179backed Hive | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed RE.Arise | 74c | 49.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225e…ac2dbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 48.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked RE.Arise | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed RE.Arise | 78c | 34.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked RE.Arise | 75c | 31.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed RE.Arise | 79c | 28.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed RE.Arise | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed RE.Arise | 77c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked RE.Arise | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RE.Arise | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 19.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…5552backed RE.Arise | 76c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked RE.Arise | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed RE.Arise | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: Hive vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerRE.Arise won
- Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5)RE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.