Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73337f8c7c1315ab3e3609d1b9bdf66e9cdc425d5393f1407df74338114f269b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 22c | 1,814$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.21 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 19c | 1,050$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 10c | 713.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 661.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 487.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 75c | 190.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Over | 16c | 172.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 76c | 159.51$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 33c | 124.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 24c | 112.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,456 | 37.9%931 W · 1,525 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…bea0backed Over | 18c | 104.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 15c | 102.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 32c | 100.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 95.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 71c | 79.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Under | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Under | 69c | 71.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 77cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Under | 65c | 67.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked Under | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 424 | 51.2%217 W · 207 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.