Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccf5b3de7253dfe679ca74ca286b182d9958750eee26f0b58de34bf8bfbea8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 49c | 3,562$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.69 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 3,309$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.19 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 2,618$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.08 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…e0fdbacked Under | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 57c | 779.36$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.12 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 28c | 444.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.4 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 304.77$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.29 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 299.89$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed Over | 53c | 255.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 247.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 41c | 212.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 56c | 201.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 65c | 189.73$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…eafabacked Under | 53c | 184.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 169$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f86…ef4ebacked Over | 32c | 119.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 116.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 99.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 50c | 97.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Over | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 54c | 80.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 54c | 63.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 47c | 60.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 63c | 54.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…8ce7backed Over | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…6c60backed Over | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 35.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…f7f0backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Under | 54c | 29.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 48c | 27.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…0836backed Under | 62c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…bea0backed Under | 55c | 19.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.